The Cost of Playoff Failure: The Treliving Era (2023 to 2026)

A lighthearted look at what three years of postseason shortfall cost the Buds

Well, here we are again in the summer of 2026, and this time the story has a definitive ending. The Brad Treliving era in Toronto is over. Relieved of his duties in late March with the season already slipping away, Treliving departed after nearly three years at the helm, and the Leafs went on to miss the playoffs entirely.

With a new front office now in place (John Chayka as general manager and franchise legend Mats Sundin as senior executive advisor), and with ownership promising a more data-centric approach, we decided to wait for the draft lottery (FIRST OVERALL!) and the bulk of free agency to wrap-up. Now, while filled with optimism for next year, it feels like the right moment to close the book on the Treliving years and tally what the lack of playoff success actually cost. Consider it our send-off before we flip fully into summer mode and pretend hockey does not exist.

As always, we set out the ground rules for an analysis that is purely for entertainment purposes:

1. From the 2018-19 season onward, the Leafs should have been capable of the same playoff success as the top-8 postseason teams, measured by total games played. Those teams averaged just over 6 home playoff games per year, so we have treated that as a reasonable baseline for the Buds.
2. The Leafs sell out every regular season and playoff game, so any potential losses relate only to playoff games not played.
3. Per-game ticket revenue, concession revenue, and operating costs are as indicated herein. Since this data is not publicly disclosed, our figures are approximations based on publicly available information and some (very) rough estimates.
4. Player, management, and front office compensation are fixed costs that do not change with the length of a playoff run (management pay included, win or lose). The same holds for television revenue and other items that do not depend on playoff performance.
5. The weighted average of ticket revenue by round is as indicated herein. This reflects that a playoff run can range from a single round to as many as four rounds in one season.
6. Amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted.

With the assumptions stated, here is what the Treliving era looks like on the ledger:

Schedule 1: Summary of Projected Pre-tax Lost Profits due to lack of Playoff Success

• Over Treliving's three seasons (2023-24 through 2025-26), the reduction in pre-tax profit was approximately $116.69 million, an average of about $38.90 million per season.
• Across those years, the net shortfall of roughly 8.9 home playoff games works out to about $13.18 million in lost pre-tax profit per game.
• The 2025-26 season did the most damage. Missing the playoffs entirely cost approximately $90.39 million, the single largest annual loss of the era, and the kind of number that tends to lead to sweeping managerial and coaching changes, which is what we have seen.
• The 2023-24 season was costly in its own right. A first-round exit (three home playoff games against a baseline of roughly six) left about $35.16 million on the table.
• The lone bright spot was 2024-25. A run to the second round produced seven home playoff games, actually exceeding the baseline and generating a net benefit of about $8.86 million. It stands as the only season of the era that paid its own way.

So there it is. The Treliving era closes with a cumulative tab of roughly $116.69 million in foregone pre-tax profit, most of it concentrated in a final season that unraveled quickly. A new era now begins, and with it, a fresh chance to start chipping away at that number rather than adding to it. We will see if Chayka, Sundin, and company can get the Buds back to playing meaningful spring hockey. Maybe then, we'll finally get to calculate the cost of a parade.